Up for grabs is the throne of Lahore – and a shy at Islamabad if it goes PTI’s way. Small wonder the air is crackling with tension.
By Riaz Missen
ISLAMABAD: With the economy bursting at its seams because of double digit inflation that is encroaching on consumer’s purchasing power and pushing suicide and crime rates higher, political rivals have closed their campaign for the mandatory election silence ahead of Sunday’s Punjab by-polls.
While addressing rallies across the province the ex-Prime Minister and the chief of his own Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan, continued his practice of hurling nasty verbal abuse at the country’s political leadership and institutions.
He questioned the integrity of institutions and judiciary for “letting the corrupt politicians collude with the foreign powers” and overthrow and “oust his elected government through an orchestrated no-confidence move”.
Never mind that this narrative has been thoroughly discredited, especially after the detailed judgement by the Supreme Court of Pakistan in over Khan’s illegal and unconstitutional attempt to quash the resolution of no-confidence.
The apex court’s short order in the case had set aside Deputy Speaker National Assembly Qasim Suri’s ruling, allowing the vote to go through, which led to Khan’s outer from the government at Centre. Pakistan Democratic Front (PDM), the opposition alliance that overthrew him, also holds a tenuous majority in Punjab.
The July 17 by-polls for 20 provincial assembly seats were necessitated after a court de-seated as many PTI lawmakers on account of defection to the rival Pakistan Democratic Front (PDM). Chief Minister Hamza Shehbaz’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) awarded tickets to the defectors in almost all constituencies, cementing their proven electoral strength by party vote.
While ideological purists within the party have pooh-poohed the strategy, pragmatists find it a clever ploy to leave Khan and his party high and dry. Khan, on the other hand, has put all his weight behind his newfound candidates because he believes those constituencies rightfully belong to his party.
What is more, a favourable outcome of the by-polls can help Khan wipe away PDM’s thin majority and install his own Chief Minister. This is basically why the Punjab by-polls have become such a high-stakes, high-strung affair.
Also, ruling Punjab, the most populous province of Pakistan, can be a stepping stone for him to claw his way back into power in Islamabad. At least, the party ruling Punjab can make the life of the federal government difficult.
Another reason for Khan’s desperation could be the fact that the long arm of law gets closer to catching up with him every day. In its judgement cited above, at least one justice has said there must be reckoning for the illegal and unconstitutional measures Khan and his coterie engaged in on July 3 to defeat the vote of no confidence.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif followed up on the apex court’s findings by having his cabinet institute a commission to pursue legal action for the said transgressions – and high treason proceedings under Article 6 of the Constitution is on the table.
At the same meeting, the cabinet also resolved to appoint a commission of inquiry (COI) to probe into allegations of sexual harassment and abuse of power against Justice (R) Javed Iqbal, the former Chairman of National Accountability Bureau (NAB).
The COI will also look into the allegations that the NAB chief was blackmailed – by none other than Khan – into manipulating evidences to malign, coerce, and victimize his opponents.
Small wonder Khan and his close aides are already trying to malign the Election Commission as well as the electoral process underway; and there are plenty of signals his strategy to counter an unfavourable outcome may be to throw a tantrum and reject electoral results that do not go his way.
Khan has already let lose his narrative of Mr X and Mr Y out to rig the polls.
Sheikh Rasheed, a close ally of Khan, has reportedly advised “the establishment” to stay away from the by-polls – insinuating efforts were afoot to rig the polls. And he threatened everybody with “a fire so massive that it will engulf everyone” – if the nation is impeded from voting for Khan’s party.
“It is unthinkable that the opposition will [accept] by-polls results if they go the wrong way”, said civil society activist Sarwar Bari who heads the civil society organisation PATTAN.
At an administrative level, Khan is up against a government and an Election Commission determined to keep the integrity of the institution and the process above question. The government has set up special control rooms at central and provincial levels to monitor the by-polls.
Manned by Returning Officers (ROs) aided by respective Deputy Commissioners (DCs), representatives of Police, and supported by Rangers and Pakistan Army personnel the control rooms will be accessible by cellular phone, email, fax, etc., and promptly resolve any election-related complaints. Contact information for all these modes of communication have been publicised.
On the ground, more than 50,000 police personnel are standing guard to the electoral process. Besides, acting on a letter from CEC Sikandar Sultan Raja concerning security arrangements for the by-polls, the authorities have decided to roll out the big guns just in case: Rangers, Pakistan Army, and Frontier Constabulary personnel will be deployed in Punjab.
At a political level, Khan is up against something close to a national political consensus: Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N); Former President Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP); Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) – and a gaggle of smaller parties from across the nation’s ideological and ethnic spectrum.
What sparks will fly when Imran Khan’s seemingly unstoppable lunge for power meets the PDM’s seemingly immovable resolve? We will know within hours from now.
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