7th population census: Messed up or sabotaged?

The much-hyped digital census cost the exchequer a whopping PKR 34 billion – but the results it has produced are hard to reconcile with reality for most people. What is happening?

By Muhammad Ali

ISLAMABAD: The current National Assembly is nearing the end of its term, mandating a general election before the year is out, but there is no end in sight to the controversies kicked up by the findings of the 7th Population Census. There is whispering if the fiasco can be used as a pretext to delay the election, due in November at the latest.

The Council of Common Interests (CCI) is yet to approve the results, and it is unclear whether they will be able to do so before the dissolution of the National Assembly and the provincial assemblies of Sindh and Balochistan. In other words, the possibility of holding the next general elections on the basis of the latest census is already in doubt.

In the absence of a consensus on the census results, it is likely that the delimitation of constituencies for the next general elections will be based on the results of the 2017 census. This would mean that the next elections would be held using outdated data, which could have a significant impact on the outcome.

The 7th Population Census was marred by controversy from the start. The use of a new digital system led to widespread problems, including instances of glaring undercounting of people in some areas and the overcounting of people in others. Some quarters criticise the results of the census as being politically motivated.

There are several obvious factors that contributed to the controversies surrounding the census. It is now known if the new digital system employed for the exercise was adequately tested or piloted. The process is marred by a sheer lack of transparency and accountability, and there are signs the exercise was allowed to be politicised by parochial forces vying for advantage in elections and resource allocation.

It is difficult to determine if there was ill intent involved and who is responsible for the fiasco, but line departments and organisations involved must be held accountable. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) had the overall responsibility for the census. The line departments that allowed political influence to creep in on the exercise have a fair share of the responsibility for the situation – as do the political parties too eager to push their political agendas that in the end made it difficult to conduct a fair and impartial count.

Then there are the systemic and cultural factors contributing to this ugly situation. The government sector lacks a strong culture of accountability, government institutions especially in provinces have been politicised, and the decision-making process lacks transparency. All these systemic issues must be addressed to avoid fiascos like this one.

This is a failure of colossal proportions with far-reaching consequences. The census numbers provide the basis to determine the number of seats each province has in the National Assembly, as well as the distribution of resources among the federating units.

Clearly, the inaccurate results of the 7th Census have muddied the waters for these crucial state functions, casting a grim shadow over the health of our federation and democracy. This is why it is important to hold those responsible for the fiasco accountable.

The government has already spent PKR 34 billion rupees on the exercise. Recently, the authorities approved a PKR 6 billion supplementary grant for the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) over and above the original allocation, pushing the price tag to PKR 40 billion.

Sadly, however, all this money will have been spent for nothing because the census results are marred with obvious anomalies and unlikely to secure the CCI’s approval. It is also unclear whether the government will be able to repeat the census in time for the next general election.

The authorities must launch an independent probe into the matter and take all necessary steps to ensure the fairness and integrity of all future censuses.