The major stakeholders of the ruling PDM coalition have widely divergent views of the census numbers. How these differences play out at a CCI meeting expected soon will have grave implications for the coalition – and the politics of the country. But the even bigger question is, can the CCI legitimately meet over the census in the first place?
By Muhammad Ali
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government is likely to face a rift over the approval of the 7th Population and Housing Census – but whether or not the census can be lawfully ratified in the absence of elected governments in two provinces may be an even bigger controversy.
Media reports Thursday said the Ministry of Planning and Development has moved a summary for convening the Council of Common Interests (CCI) meeting. Government sources say the CCI is expected to meet soon to discuss the issue, and there is speculation that the PPP, MQM, and JUI-F may not agree with the PML-N’s stance on the census.
However, there is the argument that the CCI is not complete because of the absence of elected chief ministers in two provinces (Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), and does not have the legal and constitutional authority to approve census results.
One of the main concerns is that the census results are riddled with anomalies. For example, Balochistan has seen a population growth rate of close to 10 percent, while some districts in Sindh have seen a growth rate of only boys. This has led to concerns that the census was not properly conducted.
Another concern is that the (lack of) approval for the census results may be used to delay the general election. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) needs four months to complete the delimitation exercise, and the election process itself takes 60 days. This means that if the CCI approves the census, the elections could be delayed by at least six months.
The PDM government is in a difficult position. If the CCI does not approve the census results, it will be accused of delaying the elections. However, if it does approve the census, it will face criticism for approving a flawed document.
The CCI is the highest decision-making body in Pakistan on matters related to inter-provincial coordination. It is chaired by the prime minister and consists of the chief ministers of all four provinces, the chairman of the National Assembly, and the Senate chairman. The outcome of the CCI meeting is likely to have a significant impact on the political landscape in Pakistan.
Paradoxically, if the PDM government is able to unite behind the census, the general election is almost certain to face a delay not only because the ECP has already said that it will need six months to complete the delimitation exercise if the CCI approves the census results, but also because the approval of census by an incomplete CCI is likely trigger legal battles which may take months on end.
However, if the CCI quickly declines to put its seal of approval on census numbers, the road will be clear for holding the general election on time. The bottom line is that whichever way things go, there will be potential seeds of political instability along the path.
The 7th Population and Housing Census was the first digital census in Pakistan’s history. Recently, the government granted approval of a PKR 6 billion supplementary grant for the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), jacking up the total census spend to PKR 34 billion.
The PBS worked on government to government model and acquired services from different partners including NADRA, which in turn procured 126,000 tablets for field data collection exercise; NTC, which provided data storage and computing facilities; SUPARCO, which supported the exercise with latest high resolution imagery for complete coverage and geo-tagging; the armed forces, which provided security; and district governments, who provided enumerators and field supervisors for conducting of field operations.
The census results have been criticized by a number of organizations, including the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan and the National Assembly Standing Committee on Human Rights.
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