The number reflects provisional estimates based on six to nine months’ data available for various sectors projected over the whole year
By Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD: As the end of Pakistan’s fiscal year nears and the budget making exercise gets into a higher gear, data on the performance of various sectors of economy is trickling in and numbers are being crunched to piece together a clearer picture of national accounts.
Pakistan’s GDP growth for fiscal year 2021-22 is provisionally clocking in at an estimated 5.97 percent. This number is based on six to nine months’ data available for various sectors projected over the whole year, as cited by a working paper for the 105th meeting of National Accounts Committee, held at Islamabad on May 18, 2022.
The size of the economy rose to $380 billion in 2021-22 from the revised figure of $346.76bn the previous year. The size of the economy grew in dollar terms as the rupee strengthened against the greenback — the highest-ever increase in any year.
Per capita income has also been calculated at Rs314,353, up from Rs268,223 for 2020-21. The per capita income in dollar terms has jumped to $1,798 from previous year’s projections of $1,676.
As always, the overall GDP growth is a composite of the performance metrics of Agriculture, Industry, and Services sectors of the economy, respectively weighing in at 4.40, 7.19, and 6.19 percent.
Also in are revised estimates for FY 2020-21 and final estimates for FY 2019-20.
Revised estimates for FY 2020-21
Based on whole-year data, the revised estimates for FY 2020-21 show a slight appreciation in the overall GDP rate to 5.74 percent from the provisional estimates for the year at 5.57 percent. Looking under the hood, the growth rate of the Agriculture remains consistent with the number arrived at in January 2022, which was 3.48 percent.
The performance of the crops sector has improved from 5.92 to 5.96 percent, while that of important crops subsector has slightly downgraded from 5.89 to 5.83 percent, attributable to a slight increase in consumption.
The revised growth rate of the other crops subsector has come in at 8.27 percent, compared with 8.08 percent provisional growth rate. This surge has been attributed to an improvement in the output of fruits from PKR 313.9 to 316.2 billion.
The industrial sector grew at 7.81 percent according to revised estimates, up from 7.79 percent as per provisional estimates.
Final estimates for FY 2019-20
Based on final data from sources, the overall GDP growth rate for FY 2020-21 clocks in at -0.94 percent, reflecting a slight improvement from the revised estimate of -1.00 percent. This is attributable largely to an improvement in the final data from industries, from -5.84 to -5.75 percent.
The improvement in industrial growth rate is in turn edged up on the power of better numbers returned by the construction subsector, final data from which shows -3.08 percent growth, up from the -4.04 percent recorded in provisional estimates.
The services sector has also returned a slightly better final estimates of growth of -1.21 percent, compared with -1.28 percent under provisional estimates.
Sectorial performance
The growth in important crops during this year is 7.24 percent against last year’s 5.83 percent. The growth in production of important crops — cotton, rice, sugarcane and maize — are estimated at 17.9 percent, 10.7 percent, 9.4 percent and 19 percent, respectively.
Cotton crop production increased from last year’s 7.1 million bales to 8.3 million bales; rice output from 8.4 million tonnes to 9.3 million tonnes; sugarcane production from 81 million tonnes to 88.7 milliom tonnes; and maize production rose from 8.4 million tonnes to 10.6 million tonnes.
Wheat production decreased from 27.5 million tonnes in 2020-21 to 26.4 million tonnes in 2021-22. Other crops showed growth of 5.44 percent, mainly because of an increase in production of pulses, vegetables, fodder, oilseeds and fruits.
The livestock sector is showing a growth of 3.26 percent this year against 2.38 percent last year, forestry grows 6.13 percent against a negative growth of 0.45pc last year and fishing stands at 0.35 percent this year against 0.73 percent last year.
The overall industrial sector shows an increase of 7.19 percent in 2021-22, while it recorded a growth of 7.81 percent in 2020-21. The mining and quarrying sector has declined by 4.47 percent due to a fall in production of other minerals.
The large-scale manufacturing industry is driven primarily by QIM data (from July 2021 to March 2022) which shows an increase of 10.48 percent. Major contributors to this growth are food (11.67 percent), tobacco (16.7 percent), textile (3.19 percent), wearing apparel (33.95 percent), wood products (157.5pc), chemicals (7.79 percent), iron & steel products (16.55 percent), automobiles (54.10 percent), furniture (301.83 percent) and other manufacturing (37.83 percent).
The electricity, gas and water industry shows a growth of 7.86 percent, mainly due to an increase in subsidies in 2021-22. Value added in the construction industry, mainly driven by construction-related expenditures by industries, has registered a modest growth of 3.14 percent in 2021-22 against 2.48 percent the previous year, mainly due to an increase in general government spending.
The services sector shows a growth of 6.19 percent in 2021-22 against 6pc in 2020-21. The wholesale and retail trade industry grew by 10.04 percent. It is dependent on the output of agriculture, manufacturing and imports. The growth in trade value added relating to agriculture, manufacturing and imports stands at 3.99 percent, 9.82 percent and 19.93 percent, respectively.
The transportation and storage industry has increased by 5.42 percent due to increase in gross value addition of railways (41.85 percent), air transport (26.56 percent), road transport (4.99 percent) and storage. Accommodation and food services activities have increased by 4.07 percent. Similarly, information and communication increased by 11.9 percent due to improvement in telecommunication, computer programming, consultancy and related activities.
The finance and insurance industry shows an overall increase of 4.93 percent, mainly due to an increase in deposits and loans. Real estate activities grew by 3.7 percent, while public administration and social security (general government) activities posted a negative growth of 1.23 percent due to high deflator. Education has witnessed a growth of 8.65 percent due to public sector expenditure. Human health and social work activities increased by 2.25 percent due to general government expenditures. The provisional growth in other private services is 3.76 percent.
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