The former prime minister has eaten his words about a foreign or establishment conspiracy to topple his government. Why, then, is he still on a warpath?
By Muhammad Ali & Naveed Naqvi
ISLAMABAD: Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s long march fizzled out in small-town Punjab well short of Islamabad before he called it off. He has foresworn any pretentions to having a say in the appointment of the new army chief, and the process for the transition is off the mark anyway with the summary from the Ministry of Defense already with the Prime Minister.
Khan’s agitation was based on claims of a conspiracy hatched by a foreign power and the establishment to oust him from power, claims he has since walked back. But former Prime Minister Imran Khan is promising to descend on Rawalpindi on November 26, 2022 along with “hundreds of thousands” of his party cadres.
What exactly is the firebrand of Bani Gala up to? What is his grievance and what is he looking to achieve by his continued agitation?
The short answer to the above questions is, Khan alone knows – if anyone knows at all. Contacted for this piece the other day, Asad Umar, the secretary general of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) who served as a minister in his cabinet, said his party hoped to garner hundreds of thousands of workers on November 26.
Information Minister Maryam Aurangzeb and the Prime Minister’s Office have confirmed that the summary sent by the Ministry of Defense has been received by the Prime Minister’s Office.
In a statement the other day, Maryam said that the summary sent by the Ministry of Defense has been received by the Prime Minister’s Office. The Federal Minister said that a panel of names has been sent for appointment to the posts of Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) and Chief of Army Staff (COAS).
She said that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will take a decision regarding these appointments according to the prescribed procedure. The DG ISPR also tweeted that the GHQ has forwarded the summary for the selection of CJCSC and COAS, containing names of six senior most lieutenant generals to the Ministry of Defense.
Prime Minister’s Office also confirmed, that a panel of names has been received for the appointment of the Army Chief and Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee and the Prime Minister will decide on the appointments according to the procedure.
The names on the list, in the order of seniority, are Lt-Gen Asim Munir, Lt-Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza , Lt-Gen Azhar Abbas, Lt-Gen Nauman Mehmood, Lt-Gen Faiz Hameed, and Lt-Gen Mohammad Amir.
But Khan is implacable, and adamant on holding a show of power at Rawalpindi or Islamabad. Asked if it would be a public rally or a sit-in, Asad Umra said everyone would have to wait for the PTI chairman to announce his strategy.
He said that the PTI would hold its rally on Murree Road Rawalpindi near Faizabad, the front door to Islamabad.
Observers say Khan has to work hard to keep the momentum of his ongoing campaign to secure the support of his fans/clout club till the the next general elections in the country.
The PTI wants the general election around March 2023 but the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition insists it will hold the election in August or September after the current parliament completes its term. This will also allow the incumbent government to pass the budget for fiscal year 2023-24.
Another reason the PDM cites for not agreeing to hold the parliamentary elections ahead of time is that they have to wait on the results of the 7th Housing and Population Census for fresh delimitation of electoral constituencies.
The Census is scheduled to take place from February 1, 2023 to March 4, 2023. Allow a couple a of months for data compilation and another couple for fresh delimitation of constituencies, and the earliest window for the conduct of election begins August 2023.
Returning to the present, the government hopes to complete the process for the appointment of the next army chief by November 25. The change of command ceremony is scheduled to take place at the General Headquarters (GHQ) on November 29, 2022.
When PTI will be on Murre Road the government will appoint a new COAS of the Pakistan Army as the outgoing General Bajwa will be retiring on November 29, 2022, the day the incumbent COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa retires.
The million-dollar question is, will Khan and his cohorts still be camped out at the juncture of Rawalpindi and Islamabad by that time, and will the demagogue try to stir up controversy over the choice made by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif?
Constitutionally, the Prime Minister is empowered to pick any of the three-star generals, whether or not on the MoD list, as the next army chief. Khan has attempted to throw that right into controversy without much success – but will he try again?
Many political commentators say that Imran Khan is an unpredictable man and there is not telling what he might not do at this critical juncture. Well-placed sources say if he makes a move on the GHQ, he would be taken into custody by the Rangers.
Holding a sit-in on Murree Road can be one of the options for the PTI, but sustaining the sit-in for a long period of time will be an uphill task for the party, even with the support from the district administration.
The only safe path to a face saving for Khan will be to hold a public rally on November 26, declaring victory over the announcement of the prime minister’s pick, and asserting that merit had prevailed thanks to the pressure mounted by his party.
This should allow him to return to the Parliament. The treasury and opposition benches could then hold parleys for any number of issues including early elections.
A move towards early7 polls, however will require both sides agreeing on holding the general election on basis of the 2017 census and evolving consensus on the name of the caretaker premier. Khan may even insist on a new election commissioner.
If, however, the government is not prepared to concede on any of those points, Khan will have to wait for the general election until August of September 2023.
Copyright © 2021 Independent Pakistan | All rights reserved
