Enforcement or heavier taxes

The latest budget is a reckless bet that the government can muscle through enforcement measures no one believes are feasible. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has staked the country’s fiscal future on a Rs14.1 trillion revenue target, a 19% jump from Rs11.9 trillion, underpinned by a crackdown on tax dodgers and IMF-mandated austerity. The problem? This plan assumes a level of political backbone and economic resilience that Islamabad has rarely shown. It’s less a strategy than a prayer, and the odds are stacked against it.

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IMF pleaser, growth freezer budget

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Rs 17.6 trillion budget for 2025-2026, rolled out by Finance Minister Mohammad Aurangzeb, is a high-wire act, slashing the deficit to 3.9% of GDP from 5.9% to win IMF applause, while tiptoeing around the political third rail of taxing the untaxed and sparking growth in an economy stuck in neutral. Revenue projections hit Rs 19.3 trillion, Rs 14.1 trillion from taxes, Rs 5.1 trillion from non-tax sources, a blueprint drenched in discipline. Yet, with unemployment at 6.3% (and a jaw-dropping 44.9% for youth), a 241.5 million population swollen by a youth bulge, and an informal economy mocking the tax net, this budget risks being a masterclass in caution rather than the bold stroke Pakistan desperately needs. Stability is the buzzword here, but it might just be a polite term for paralysis.

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