By Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s meteorological authorities have issued a fresh warning over the threat of glacial lake outburst floods in the country’s mountainous north, as thousands of residents in Gilgit-Baltistan remain cut off from the outside world for a fifth consecutive day.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department said on Sunday that a combination of unseasonably warm temperatures and intermittent rainfall was expected to accelerate the melting of snow and ice across Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through the first week of August, raising the risk of sudden and destructive flooding in valleys that are home to some of the country’s most vulnerable communities.
The warning, which builds on an earlier alert issued on 17 July, cautioned that river levels in the region were likely to remain elevated, that existing glacial lakes could expand rapidly, and that entirely new lakes might form as meltwater accumulates behind unstable walls of ice and rock debris.
“This significant warming with intermittent rain will substantially accelerate snow and ice melt in the glaciated valleys of these regions,” the department said, warning that the resulting pressure could destabilise the natural dams holding many of these lakes in place, potentially triggering a glacial lake outburst flood, or Glof — the sudden, often catastrophic release of water and debris down mountain valleys.
More than 7.1 million people living in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are considered vulnerable to the phenomenon, according to figures from Pakistan’s climate change ministry. The country is home to more than 13,000 glaciers, the largest concentration found anywhere outside the polar regions, but scientists have recorded around 10,000 of them retreating across Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan as global temperatures rise.
Meteorologists also flagged a heightened risk of landslides, warning that thawing permafrost combined with surface water could send heavy mudflows and debris cascading down steep slopes in the coming days.
Residents in glaciated and snow-bound valleys have been urged to stay well back from riverbanks, streams and local waterways, and to avoid camping or trekking near glacial lakes and narrow mountain valleys altogether. The department also called on communities to work closely with locally based disaster risk committees, while instructing disaster management authorities to remain on alert around the clock.
Roads severed as bridge swept away
The warning comes as flash floods and glacial outburst events continue to cut off large parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, where a key bridge was swept away by recent flooding, severing road access to four districts of Baltistan for four days running.
In an effort to restore the vital Baltistan Highway, authorities have been working to install a temporary iron Bailey bridge near Sassi, Haramush and Ansar Camp. Amjad Hussain, Gilgit-Baltistan’s newly elected chief minister, said on Sunday that he had ordered the immediate restoration of all affected highways and communication links across the region.
Hussain said the bridge was expected to be completed by the end of the day, allowing the highway to reopen to traffic, and instructed the regional home secretary to ensure police and other departments were on hand to manage the flow of vehicles once it did. He said soldiers from the Pakistan Army, engineers from the Frontier Works Organisation, labourers and officials from the National Highway Authority and the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA) had been working “day and night” to reopen the route, and ordered that stranded passengers be provided with food, medical care and other essential support in the meantime.
According to a disaster summary released by the GBDMA on Sunday, the region has recorded 89 separate flash flood, mudflow, river erosion, cloudburst and Glof events so far this monsoon season. The toll includes 130 houses destroyed and a further 162 damaged, along with 20 bridges and more than 18 kilometres of road left in ruins. Some 230 people have been displaced and 73 livestock lost.
GBDMA director general Ataur Rehman Kakar said heavy machinery had been deployed and that restoration work was continuing around the clock. Despite those efforts, several major routes remained closed as of Sunday, including the Baltistan Road, Haramosh Road, Naltar Road, Hisper Road, the Astore Valley Road at Khachak, and the Hushe Valley Road at Rout Longba in Ghanche district.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also on alert
Further south, authorities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa issued their own warning on Sunday, telling residents to steer clear of rivers and streams as the threat of glacial flooding grows across the province.
The province’s disaster management authority named Upper and Lower Chitral, Upper Dir, Swat, Upper Kohistan and Mansehra among the districts at risk, warning that warm weather combined with intermittent rain was likely to speed up glacial melt. Local administrations have been told to keep sensitive areas under continuous watch and to issue warnings without delay, while residents of low-lying areas have been told to expect timely updates on any developing threat.
The authority urged the public to avoid unnecessary travel and told tourists not to camp or trek in vulnerable areas, warning that vehicles risked being swept away in fast-flowing water. It also advised residents to pay close attention to any sudden change in the colour of water in rivers and streams, or to unusual sounds, as possible early warning signs.
The renewed alerts come against the backdrop of a punishing monsoon season nationwide. Heavy rains have killed at least 107 people and injured 344 others across Pakistan since 26 June, according to the National Disaster Management Authority, with the bulk of the deaths recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, where flash floods, collapsing walls and roofs, and electrocutions have all taken a toll.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast further rain and thunderstorms in the coming days across the upper catchments of the country’s rivers, as well as in Islamabad, Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
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