By Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Meteorological Department warned on Friday that the 2026 southwest monsoon season is likely to bring below-normal rainfall to most of South Asia and above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire region, driven by the probable development of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
The seasonal outlook was finalised this week at the 34th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, held Tuesday in Malé, Maldives. The forum brought together experts from the national meteorological services of nine South Asian countries along with specialists from the World Meteorological Organization, the WMO Regional Climate Centre in Pune, India’s Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the United Kingdom Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Korean Meteorological Administration and other regional and international bodies.
El Niño is the warm phase of a naturally occurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It warms surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, altering global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns. The conditions oscillate between El Niño, its cooler counterpart La Niña and neutral phases. The previous El Niño event helped make 2023 the second-hottest year on record globally and pushed 2024 to the hottest year ever measured.
According to the forum’s statement, released by the Pakistan Meteorological Department on Friday, current ENSO-neutral conditions in the Pacific are transitioning toward El Niño, with global climate models showing strong consensus that the warm phase will be in place during the June-to-September 2026 monsoon. A spokesperson for the department, Anjum Nazir Zaighum, said the development is expected to suppress the summer monsoon across the Indian subcontinent.
The statement noted that neutral conditions currently prevail in the Indian Ocean Dipole, but models suggest a positive phase of that phenomenon is likely to emerge later in the monsoon season. Forum participants also reviewed other factors that influence monsoon performance, including Northern Hemisphere snow cover and land-surface temperature anomalies in winter and spring. “However, some areas over the northwestern, northeastern and parts of the southern region are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall,” the statement said. Minimum and maximum temperatures, it added, are expected to run above normal across most of South Asia.
The department cautioned that global climate models around this time of year carry “noticeable uncertainty” and that seasonal patterns could still be shaped by other regional and global influences as well as shorter-term, intra-seasonal weather features. In comments to the Pakistani newspaper Dawn last month, Zaighum had said El Niño was expected to develop during the coming summer and could strengthen into a “super El Niño” by late August or September. “If super El Niño forms, then 2027 might be the warmest year in records,” he added.
Separately, the Meteorological Department issued an advisory on Friday warning of an approaching westerly weather system that will bring widespread dust-thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, hailstorms and strong winds to upper and central Pakistan from the evening of May 2 through the morning of May 5. The agency said the spell should ease the intense heat now gripping much of the country.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to bear the brunt of the system. Dust-thunderstorms with isolated heavy falls and hailstorms are forecast in Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kalam, Shangla, Buner, Kohistan, Malakand, Battagram, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Balakot, Haripur, Mardan, Nowshera, Peshawar, Bajaur, Mohmand, Orakzai, Khyber, Swabi, Charsadda, Kohat, Kurram, Hangu, Karak, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Tank, Dera Ismail Khan and Waziristan from the evening of May 2 through May 4, with occasional breaks.
In Punjab and Islamabad, similar conditions — including dust-thunderstorms and isolated hailstorms — are expected in Murree, Galiyat, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Khushab, Sargodha, Mianwali, Bhakkar, Faisalabad, Sahiwal, Jhang, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot and Narowal from the evening of May 2 through the night of May 4. Rain-windstorms and thunderstorms with isolated hail are also possible in Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, Layyah, Multan and Khanewal on May 3 and 4.
Farther north, rain, wind and thunderstorm activity is likely in Gilgit-Baltistan districts including Diamir, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Guanche and Shigar from the night of May 2 until May 5. Azad Kashmir districts — Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber and Mirpur — face a similar forecast, with the possibility of heavy falls and hailstorms.
In Balochistan, windstorms and thunderstorms are expected in Quetta, Ziarat, Chaman, Qilla Abdullah, Qilla Saifullah, Kohlu, Zhob, Barkhan and Loralai from May 2 to 4. Upper Sindh could see dust-thunderstorms on May 2 and 3.The department highlighted the risk of landslides in vulnerable parts of upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir, particularly on May 3 and 4.
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