Monitoring Desk
KARACHI: Jailed ex-prime minister Imran Khan is the top pick for Pakistani finance professionals to oversee the cash-strapped economy’s recovery, according to a Bloomberg survey published this week.
Khan, effectively barred from contesting the Feb. 8 election, was ranked highest among 12 traders, economists and analysts from some of the nation’s biggest brokerages. Respondents cited the former cricket star’s “enduring popularity” as a key reason, saying he would be able to push through market-focused reforms in the long run.
“Three-time former premier Nawaz Sharif came second, with respondents mentioning his experience in government and the widespread belief that he’s backed by the country’s powerful military,” the survey results showed.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a scion of the influential Bhutto clan, was a distant third, with some of those surveyed citing a distrust of dynastic politics.
An analysis by Bloomberg Economics of Pakistan’s misery index — a combination of inflation and unemployment rates — showed Sharif’s party performed better in managing the economy over the past three decades compared with rivals, including Khan.
Khan currently has three separate court convictions and is barred from running in elections. But independent observers and voters are raising questions about the legitimacy of the upcoming polls if the country’s most popular politician is barred from contesting when almost 129 million eligible voters cast their ballots in federal and provincial elections next week.
Pakistan has seen its National Assembly complete a five-year term just three times in its 76-year history, and political observers say there is growing unhappiness with the electoral system with Khan out of the race.
On Tuesday, Khan, convicted for graft last August, was handed another jail sentence for his role in publicising a classified diplomatic cable. On Wednesday, Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi got 14 years in jail in a case related to the illegal selling of state gifts.
With Khan’s fortunes down, Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz have been gaining support from voters since he ended four years of self-imposed exile in London. His return to Pakistan last year was widely seen as a deal with the generals, who deny interfering in politics. A Gallup poll carried out in November showed Sharif holds the highest approval ratings in his base in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province.
Whoever wins the polls will oversee an economy grappling with low reserves and stubbornly high inflation. The country is likely to require another loan from the International Monetary Fund to stay afloat.
All 12 Bloomberg survey respondents said they didn’t expect Pakistan to survive without a new IMF loan.
Half of them said Pakistan can survive without a bailout for six months. A nine-month IMF program is set to end in March, and Pakistan has about $1 billion in dollar-denominated debt due in April.
Here are other findings from the survey carried out in January:
- Poll contributers expect Pakistan’s economy to log 2.65 percent growth in the fiscal year starting July.
- The government estimates the economy will expand 2 percent-2.5 percent in the current fiscal year after contracting about 0.3 percent last fiscal year.
- Inflation is likely to moderate to 25.05 percent in fiscal year ending June. It now stands at about 30 percent.
- Four respondents said Pakistan can survive without an IMF loan for three months while two said nine months.
- None said the country can survive for more than a year without a bailout.
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