By Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy grew 3.65% in the fiscal year that ended in June, slightly below the government’s earlier estimate, after expansion slowed to 2% in the final quarter.
The National Accounts Committee, which approves the country’s official GDP data, lowered its provisional May estimate of 3.70%, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics said Monday after the panel’s 118th meeting. The outcome also falls short of the 4% the government had estimated earlier. The meeting was chaired by the secretary of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives.
The figure is broadly in line with outside forecasters. The International Monetary Fund projected growth of 3.6% for the year, while the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank each saw 3.7%. The State Bank of Pakistan expected expansion close to 3.7%.
The fourth quarter was the weak spot. Growth of 2% in April-June compared with 6.07% a year earlier, a high base that the statistics bureau cited for the slowdown. Industry shrank 4.7% in the quarter, against growth of about 20% a year earlier. Electricity, gas and water supply contracted 33.19%, reflecting lower subsidies, a high deflator and a base effect of 123.03%. Mining and quarrying grew 8.9%, large-scale manufacturing 0.41% and construction 3.52%.
Agriculture expanded 3.71% in the quarter, compared with 0.58% a year earlier, and services grew 3.62%, down from 4.21%. Within services, information and communication rose 15.03%, health and social work 6.14%, public administration and social security 5.46%, and transport and storage 3.25%. Education grew 3.97% and finance and insurance 2.2%, while wholesale and retail trade rose 0.75%.
The committee also revised the first three quarters of the fiscal year. Growth in the July-September period was cut to 3.89% from 3.92%, while the second quarter was raised to 4.31% from 4.05% and the third to 4.42% from 3.99%. The upward revisions to the middle quarters reflected higher agriculture benchmarks, which lifted farm growth to 3.18%, 3.34% and 3.79% in the first three quarters from 2.95%, 2.64% and 3.01%.
For the full year, agriculture grew 3.50%, up from the earlier estimate of 2.89%. Industry expanded 3.34%, down from 3.51%, and services 3.81%, down from 4.09%.
In agriculture, important crops, led by wheat and maize, grew 1.59%, up from 0.65%. Other crops rose 4.28% from 2.43%, helped by pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder. Livestock growth eased to 3.71% from 3.75%. Forestry grew 10.80% and fishing 1.39%.
Within industry, large-scale manufacturing, measured by the Quantum Index of Manufacturing, expanded 5.01%, down from 6.11%. Automobiles surged 57.77% and transport equipment 42.36%. Furniture rose 22.69%, football and other manufacturing 16.62%, electrical equipment 14.25% and rubber products 14.19%. Tobacco climbed 12.61%, petroleum products 9.7% and food 7.03%.
Pharmaceuticals fell 8.87%, iron and steel products 7.84%, chemicals 2.53% and leather products 1.95%. Mining and quarrying improved to 1.52% from 0.38%, with gas up 2.84%, crude oil 5.12% and coal 2.73%. Construction growth was revised to 6.30% from 5.73% on higher public-sector spending. Electricity, gas and water supply narrowed its contraction to 10.24% from 10.63%, on increased output from distribution companies.
In services, wholesale and retail trade grew 2.37%, down from 3.71%, as manufacturing and imports declined. Information and communication growth was revised up to 9.53% from 7.52%. Finance and insurance rose 4.23% from 0.32%, helped by the insurance industry, and transport and storage 3.23% from 2.31%, with upward revisions in railways, water transport and air transport. Growth slowed in public administration and social security to 5.67% from 8.54%, education to 4.17% from 5.23%, and health and social work to 5.52% from 6.85%. Other private services rose to 4.01% from 3.69%.
The size of the economy was put at 126.4 trillion rupees ($450.4 billion), up from 114.9 trillion rupees ($408.7 billion) a year earlier and below the 126.9 trillion rupees ($452.1 billion) estimated in May. Services, followed by industry and livestock, drove the expansion. The committee also folded in revised import data for fiscal 2021 through 2025, adding 227 billion rupees to the size of the economy in fiscal 2024.
Per capita income rose to 531,897 rupees, or $1,896, from $1,824 in fiscal 2025, though that is below the $1,901 estimated in May. Dawn newspaper described it as the lowest in the region. The figure is based on population projections from the 2023 census. Per capita income was $1,551 in fiscal 2023, $1,766 in 2022 and $1,677 in 2021.
Growth for fiscal 2025 was revised to 3.11% from 3.18%. Agriculture growth that year was cut to 1.32% from 1.53% on a downward revision in forestry, and industry to 5.46% from 5.56%, with mining and quarrying contracting 4.01% rather than 3.73%. Services growth was little changed at 3.13%.
The finance minister told parliament in the Economic Survey that floods early in the year and then a regional conflict, which pushed oil prices sharply higher, weighed on the economy. The National Economic Council has set a growth target of 4% for the current fiscal year.
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