By Staff Reporter
KARACHI: With floodwaters from Pakistan’s northern rivers racing southward, Sindh province is fortifying embankments and preparing evacuations to avert catastrophe, as officials warn that flows exceeding 900,000 cusecs could endanger hundreds of thousands of residents in the coming days.
Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, addressing a press conference in Sukkar on Sunday, detailed a strategy to combat the anticipated “super floods,” prioritising the safety of lives and livestock while coordinating with military forces for emergencies. The initial surge is expected to peak at Trimmu Barrage in Punjab’s Jhang district tonight, he said, as high or exceptional floods grip the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers, all set to merge downstream.
Saving lives remains the top priority, Shah said, with efforts focused on keeping floodwaters out of cities and protecting the Sukkur and Guddu barrages.
Shah spoke after inspecting sites, including Qadirpur Shank Bund, which he called one of the province’s most sensitive embankments. He mandated round-the-clock monitoring, reinforcement of weak areas and emergency readiness, urging residents near the Indus River to remain vigilant and heed instructions.
“There will be a lot of pressure on the barrages, but they can safely handle the amount of water we are seeing,” Shah said. “We need to protect our embankments. On the right bank between Guddu and Sukkur, there are six vulnerable points. I visited one and saw the preparations, ordering the irrigation minister to act as the focal person.”
“On the left bank, the most vulnerable point is near Qadirpur. I visited it today; hopefully, we will keep these embankments safe.”
The Sindh government is liaising with the army and navy for any contingencies, Shah added.
He outlined three core priorities: protecting human and animal life, securing the Guddu and Sukkur barrages, and preventing embankment breaches to shield populated “pakka” areas from inundation.
“We will get water coming from the Guddu Barrage. I went there and received a briefing, and I also saw the situation at the barrage,” Shah said. “There are two embankments on either side and I examined both of them.”
“Our strategy is to protect human and animal life; we will elaborate on the steps later. After that, we need to protect the Guddu and Sukkur barrages and ensure that our embankments do not leak, so that floodwater does not enter the pakka area.”
Shah has instructed provincial authorities to brace for “super floods” — defined as flows over 900,000 cusecs at Guddu and Sukkur — citing NDMA forecasts of 800,000 to 1,100,000 cusecs in Sindh’s rivers. The government is ready, he asserted.
“It is in our mind to protect lives and livestock under any circumstances. Whether the waters are 800,000 and 900,000 or God forbid more than that, our entire Katcha area will drown, so we will need to evacuate people from there,” Shah explained.
Authorities are gauging the floods based on peak flows at Trimmu and Sulemanki on the Sutlej, from where waters will flow to Sindh. Guddu Barrage endured 1,150,000 cusecs in 2010, Shah noted.
The three flooding rivers — Ravi, Chenab and Sutlej — were allocated to India under the Indus Waters Treaty, he said, and “water was released in huge quantities on them.”
Mobile health units are deployed on both riverbanks to maximize care, Shah said. “In this area, during floods, there are many cases of snakebites. I examined the camps along the embankment and inspected the stocks of anti-venom and medicine. Though there is no emergency, people were availing the benefits.”
Camps will offer cooked meals, with dry rations delivered to homes. “This flood will pass quickly because there is not much water behind it,” Shah said. “In 2010, there was a flow of over 1 million cusecs for 16 days and the right bank had been breached. The flow at Qadirabad receded from over 1 million cusecs over 48 hours.”
Between Guddu and Sukkur, flows of 500,000-700,000 cusecs could affect 130,941 people and 21,823 households, plus or minus 4 percent, Shah warned. “If we determine that water flow will not exceed 700,000 cusecs, we will evacuate the people in this area,” he said. “If it reaches up to 900,000 cusecs, we estimate that 104,255 people and 17,376 families will be affected. If the flow exceeds 900,000 cusecs, then an additional 224,313 people and 37,319 families will be affected.
“We have prepared for 900,000 cusecs, which is a ‘super flood.’ Our commissioners and deputy commissioners have this data and field staff will guide them on how to perform evacuations.”
Pakistan Navy boats and crews are positioned on both banks, with 192 PDMA boats available and private vessels enlisted for livestock rescues. “The priority is to protect life,” Shah stated.
The government is tracking combined inflows from all five rivers and the Indus. “We are monitoring the water flows closely,” Shah said. “Water from the Chenab and Jhelum, which is passing through the Trimmu barrage, will hit us first. It is also the biggest amount of water.”
Some 445,000 cusecs have passed Trimmu, he said. “It will take around three days for water to flow from Trimmu to Panjnad, where water from the Ravi and Sutlej will also flow.
“What we have been told is that tonight, around 8-10pm, the water at Trimmu will peak. Water levels at Trimmu are rising; we cannot say where they will reach. The barrage above it has seen 800,000 cusecs flow through the river. We need to see how much it peaks at Trimmu, then we can estimate how much water will be at Panjnad. Based on that estimate, we have mapped which villages will be affected depending on the flow of water.”
The Sindh preparations follow rampant flooding in Punjab, where over 2,000 villages are affected, impacting more than 20 million people, according to Relief Commissioner Nabeel Javed. Some 760,000 have been rescued, with 511 relief camps, 354 medical camps and 333 veterinary camps operating. Authorities have relocated 516,000 cattle.
“Exceptionally high” floods persist at Balloki Headworks on the Ravi (186,515 cusecs outflow, falling) and Ganda Singh Wala on the Sutlej (253,068 cusecs), per Flood Forecasting Division data at 4 p.m. Sunday. High floods continue at Chiniot and Trimmu on the Chenab, and Sulemanki on the Sutlej. Khanki on the Chenab has dropped to low flood from exceptionally high on Aug. 27, while Marala is normal. Shahdara and Jassar on the Ravi are at medium levels. Sindh rivers show low floods but face an imminent deluge.
At least 33 people died in Punjab this week from rains and floods, said PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia, as nearly 750,000 were evacuated. Over 2,200 villages and more than 2 million people are affected, with figures climbing.
Nationally, monsoons since June 26 have killed 831 and injured 1,121, per NDMA. Punjab has 191 deaths, behind Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s 480; Sindh has 58, Gilgit-Baltistan 41, Azad Kashmir 29, Balochistan 24, Islamabad eight.
The NDMA reports 8,986 damaged houses (2,093 destroyed, 6,893 partial), over 6,100 livestock lost, 661 kilometers of roads damaged and 238 bridges affected. Punjab’s Aug. 30 report was pending, indicating potentially higher damage.
NDMA is sending rations to Punjab districts, with convoys to Wazirabad and Hafizabad; aid reached Narowal and Sialkot, with Chiniot and Jhang next. Each 46-kilogram bag holds 22 essentials. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ordered increased coordination.
Kathia warned of 900,000 cusecs in the Chenab at Jhang, a looming threat at Islam Headworks on the Sutlej (over 100,000 cusecs at Sulemanki), 200,000 cusecs in the Ravi and 211,000 cusecs at Balloki plus 20,000 from Nankana Sahib.
Punjab PDMA forecasts heavy rain Sept. 1-3 in upper Sutlej, Beas, Ravi and Chenab regions, risking “extremely high to unprecedented flood surges.” India’s Bhakra Dam is 84 percent full, Pong 94 percent, Thein 92 percent, fueling fears of more releases. Pakistan accuses India of excess discharges into the treaty-allocated rivers, worsening Punjab’s agricultural flooding. Officials note this is Pakistan’s first simultaneous “super flood” in the three rivers.
The Met Office’s ninth monsoon spell lasts until Sept. 2. The flood risk is shifting south, with NDMA alerting that the Indus at Guddu and Sukkur may hit very high levels Sept. 4-5.
Copyright © 2021 Independent Pakistan | All rights reserved
