By Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD: The Economic Coordination Committee approved a steering panel to oversee wheat import needs on Wednesday, formalising an emergency response to a supply shortage that has pushed flour costs higher across the country of 268 million people.
The committee, chaired virtually by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, tapped Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to lead the new steering group, according to a Finance Ministry statement. The body will assess provincial wheat requirements and determine how imports should proceed, addressing what officials described as competing demands from the country’s four provinces.
The move follows a July 25 announcement by Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain that Pakistan would import one million tons of wheat immediately, a decision reached after federal and provincial officials met to review stockpiles and pricing. Hussain said at the time that the imports were needed to meet provincial requirements and stabilize a market that has seen costs climb steadily since the current marketing year began in May.
The steering committee will include Hussain alongside the ministers for commerce, economic affairs and law, senior federal officials, the chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue, the head of the state-run Trading Corporation of Pakistan and the chief secretaries of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Its mandate, the Finance Ministry said, is to conduct a needs assessment and develop an operational mechanism tied to provincial demand.
Provincial requests have already surfaced tensions over how existing stocks should be divided. Punjab has asked for one million tons from federal reserves, while Sindh has sought at least 220,000 tons from government warehouses within the province, according to officials who attended last week’s meeting. The government also plans to direct the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation, known as PASSCO, to release its wheat holdings to provinces based on need.
Prices Climb Across Provinces
The shortage has driven wheat prices to 4,611 rupees per 40 kilograms nationally in the first week of July, up from 4,516 rupees the previous week — a jump of roughly 2%. The increase was uneven: Punjab recorded the lowest price at 4,423 rupees, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa reached 5,100 rupees, a gap of nearly 15% between provinces.
Flour prices followed a similar trajectory, rising to a national average of 1,288 rupees per 10 kilograms from 1,268 rupees. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan posted the steepest costs, at 1,356 rupees and 1,378 rupees respectively, underscoring the regional disparities straining household budgets less than three months into the new marketing year.
Conflicting Production Estimates
The scale of Pakistan’s wheat shortfall remains contested among government agencies, millers and farmer groups, complicating the policy response. The Federal Committee on Agriculture had set a production target of 29.68 million tons for the 2025-26 Rabi season, but the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission, using satellite data, estimated actual output at 27.48 million tons in May — citing a smaller cultivated area and weaker yields than expected.
The government’s Economic Survey 2025-26 offered a more optimistic figure, putting production at 29.61 million tons, a 4.3% increase from 28.40 million tons the prior year, with cultivated area expanding 4.4% to 9.48 million hectares. Provincial estimates submitted to the Federal Committee on Agriculture in April totaled 29.31 million tons, about 1.24% below target, with Punjab accounting for 22.04 million tons, Sindh 4.4 million tons, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 1.41 million tons and Balochistan 1.45 million tons.
Demand projections, meanwhile, point to a widening gap. With per-capita consumption estimated at 115 kilograms annually and a population of 268.13 million, total wheat demand for the 2026-27 marketing year is forecast at 34.33 million tons — split between 30.83 million tons for human consumption, 1.5 million tons for feed and seed, and 2 million tons earmarked for strategic reserves. Against total availability of 31.78 million tons, which includes domestic production plus a 2 million-ton carryover, officials project a shortfall of approximately 2.55 million tons.
Pakistan, among the world’s largest wheat producers, imports the grain periodically when domestic output fails to keep pace with demand or when market supplies tighten. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s April 2025 forecast placed the country’s annual wheat consumption at 31.9 million tons for 2025-26, reflecting steady population growth that has outstripped production gains in recent years.
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