By Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy expanded 3.89 percent in the October-December quarter of fiscal 2026, accelerating from 2.18 percent a year earlier and edging ahead of the revised 3.63 percent pace in the preceding three months, according to official data released on Thursday.
The pickup, disclosed by the National Accounts Committee, was propelled by a sharp recovery in industry even as agriculture and parts of manufacturing showed signs of moderation. Services provided a modest lift, helping offset the softer performance elsewhere and keeping the quarterly expansion on a modestly firmer footing.
The 115th meeting of the National Accounts Committee, chaired by the secretary of the Planning Commission and held at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics headquarters in Islamabad, approved the figures along with updated annual estimates for prior years. The committee revised first-quarter fiscal 2026 growth slightly lower to 3.63 percent from an initial 3.71 percent.
It also finalised full-year fiscal 2024 growth at 2.62 percent, a shade below the previous estimate of 2.63 percent, and trimmed fiscal 2025 growth to 3.06 percent from 3.09 percent.
Year-on-year, the second-quarter expansion was driven by a 7.40 percent surge in industry, a 1.76 percent rise in agriculture and 3.69 percent growth in services. The combined performance marked a clear improvement from the same period a year ago, when industry had managed just 0.78 percent.
Within agriculture, important crops contracted 1.87 percent, weighed by a 0.9 percent decline in cotton output despite higher use of seeds, which rose 6 percent, and fertilizer, up 7.2 percent. Other crops shrank 5.69 percent, a narrower decline than the 19.14 percent drop recorded a year earlier, as green-fodder production fell 12.8 percent. Livestock expanded 5.59 percent, virtually unchanged from 5.56 percent, supported by lower input costs. Forestry and fishing grew 3.76 percent and 0.77 percent, respectively, in line with their recent trends.
Industry’s rebound was broad-based but uneven. Mining and quarrying contracted 2.46 percent, dragged by lower output of natural gas, down 3.98 percent; marble, off 10.68 percent; limestone, down 8.35 percent; and other minerals, which fell 5.91 percent. Large-scale manufacturing, tracked through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing, advanced 5.71 percent. Leading contributors included automobiles, which jumped 52.95 percent; transport equipment, up 40.81 percent; and petroleum products, which rose 24.65 percent.
Electricity, gas and water supply posted 15.11 percent growth, helped by a jump in quarterly subsidies to 323 billion rupees from 217 billion rupees and a decline in the consumer-price-index electricity deflator to 256.41 from 283.60. Construction activity, measured by output indicators, expanded 10.53 percent; cement production rose 8.44 percent.
The services sector grew 3.69 percent, up from 2.80 percent a year earlier. Wholesale and retail trade advanced 4.46 percent, reflecting 2 percent growth in agriculture, 6.1 percent in manufacturing and a 1.3 percent rise in imports. Transport and storage expanded 2.79 percent, a modest acceleration from 2.68 percent, underpinned by stronger road-transport activity including trucks, buses and wagons.
The State Bank of Pakistan projects full-year fiscal 2026 growth at 4 percent. The World Bank is slightly more cautious at 3 percent by the end of June. The government’s own target of 4.2 percent appears ambitious given the mixed quarterly signals and lingering constraints in agriculture and mining.
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