Foreign inflows jump 33% to $2.293 billion in July-October on IMF backstop

Foreign inflows jump 33% to $2.293 billion in July-October on IMF backstop

By Staff Reporter

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan received $2.293 billion in total foreign economic assistance, loans plus grants, in the first four months of fiscal 2026, up 33.2% from $1.723 billion a year earlier, as International Monetary Fund disbursements provided crucial early-year support and spared the country a repeat of last year’s anaemic start.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs said on Wednesday that it had received $2.293 billion in total foreign inflows in July-October FY26, compared with $1.723 billion in the same period last year. Of the total, $1.822 billion came as loans, a 39.3% increase from $1.308 billion a year earlier, while grants collapsed 73% to $50.56 million from $87.66 million.

October alone brought in $471 million, edging up from $414 million in the same month of 2024. The stronger opening contrasts sharply with the previous fiscal year, when the absence of an active IMF programme left inflows subdued at the start. By contrast, July-October 2023 had seen an outsized $3.85 billion pour in after the signing of a nine-month $3 billion Stand-By Arrangement, including a $1.2 billion IMF tranche that unlocked $2 billion in time deposits from Saudi Arabia and $1 billion from the UAE. July 2023 alone recorded $5.1 billion.

This year’s $2.293 billion breakdown shows $773 million earmarked for project financing and $1.52 billion as non-project aid. Within non-project aid, roughly $735 million went toward budgetary support, a modest sum against the full-year budget-support target of $13.5 billion, down from $15 billion in FY25.

Islamabad also drew $400 million under the Saudi oil facility on deferred payment, $100 million each month, against an annual commitment of $1 billion for the full year. Multilateral creditors excluding the IMF disbursed $1.2 billion in the four-month period, 67% more than the $720 million received a year earlier and equivalent to 24% of the raised FY26 target of $5 billion (versus $4.5 billion target last year).

Bilateral creditors other than the three traditional friendly countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, China) provided $449 million, 73% higher than the $260 million received in July-October FY24 and already one-third of the full-year $1.36 billion target. Combined multilateral and bilateral disbursements (again excluding the three friendly countries) reached $1.558 billion against a FY26 target of $6.4 billion that comprises $5.05 billion from multilaterals and $1.36 billion from bilaterals.

Inflows through Naya Pakistan Certificates from overseas Pakistanis rose to $735 million from $542 million a year earlier, already exceeding the government’s full-year projection of $609 million. The authorities have set an ambitious overall external financing target of $19.9 billion for FY26, up from $19.4 billion last year.

The details show the country received $6.4 billion from multilateral and bilateral sources, $400 million via international bonds (Sukuk/Eurobond), $3.1 billion in foreign commercial loans, $5 billion time deposit from Saudi Arabia, and $4 billion SAFE deposit from China.

With the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility now in place, policymakers are counting on steady multilateral and bilateral disbursements plus rollovers from Riyadh and Beijing to meet the external financing requirement and keep reserves comfortable through the fiscal year.

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