By Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s inflation cooled slightly to 6.1% in November, staying within the government’s forecast range as moderating fuel costs and improved crop supplies helped offset lingering pressures from floods and border disruptions.
The consumer price index rose 6.1% from a year earlier, down from 6.24% in October, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. That was a touch below brokerage estimates and aligned with the Finance Ministry’s projection of 5% to 6% for the month.
On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.4%, slowing from October’s 1.8% gain. “CPI inflation on [a] YoY basis increased by 4.2pc in November 2025, as compared to an increase of 4.8pc a month earlier and an increase of 7.3pc in November 2024,” the statistics bureau’s report said. “On [a] MoM basis, it increased by 0.4pc in November 2025 as compared to 0.9pc a month earlier and an increase of 1pc in November 2024.”
The slowdown marks a continued retreat from nearly 30% inflation a year ago, though volatile food prices, driven by temporary supply shocks and damage from earlier floods, remain a key risk.
Urban inflation quickened to 6.1% year-on-year, up from 6% in October, while rural prices rose 6.3%, easing from 6.6% the prior month. The reading brought average inflation for the first five months of the fiscal year to 5.01%, down from 7.88% in the same period a year earlier.
The Finance Ministry, in its monthly outlook last week, flagged building inflationary pressures but still expected the gauge to hold in the 5% to 6% band. “Inflation is expected to remain in the range of 5-6% in November, due to pressures on food prices and agricultural output,” the ministry said.
Brokerages had braced for a hotter print. Topline Securities projected 6.5% to 7% year-on-year, citing “the aftereffects of floods and the closure of the Afghan border in the country, affecting food supplies.” JS Global anticipated 6.3%, driven by a 7.2% jump in food inflation.
The data follow the State Bank of Pakistan’s move to keep its key policy rate at 11%, with officials indicating inflation would linger above the 5% to 7% target for a few more months before moderating in the next fiscal year.
Central bank Governor Jameel Ahmad said last week that price gains have aligned with forecasts and are “expected to remain within the 5–7% target band over the medium term.” Pakistan’s economy has stabilized after securing a $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund earlier this year, with reserves climbing and the currency steadying. Yet challenges persist, including high borrowing costs and fiscal constraints as the government targets a primary surplus. The November figures may reinforce bets on eventual rate cuts, though analysts say the central bank will remain cautious amid global uncertainties and domestic supply risks.
Copyright © 2021 Independent Pakistan | All rights reserved
